Tirzepatide Results Estimator
Project your research outcomes based on SURMOUNT-1 Phase 3 clinical trial data (n=2,539). See conservative, typical, and optimistic projections at 12, 24, 48, and 72 weeks.
Configure Your Projection
Enter starting weight and target dose — projections calculate instantly from SURMOUNT-1 trial data.
SURMOUNT-1 mean 72-week loss: −20.9% at 15mg
Enter your current weight above to see SURMOUNT-1 based projections.
Research purposes only. Projections are statistical estimates derived from published clinical trial data and do not constitute medical advice. Individual outcomes vary. Not intended for human use guidance.
How This Works
The methodology behind the projections — where the numbers come from and what they mean.
SURMOUNT-1 Phase 3 Data
The primary data source is the SURMOUNT-1 Phase 3 randomized controlled trial (Jastreboff et al., 2022, NEJM), which enrolled 2,539 adults with obesity across 72 weeks. Tirzepatide at 5mg, 10mg, and 15mg weekly doses was compared against placebo with standardized lifestyle intervention. Mean weight reductions of 15.0%, 19.5%, and 20.9% were observed at 5mg, 10mg, and 15mg respectively.
Trajectory Modeling
Weight loss in GLP-1/GIP agonist trials does not occur linearly. Based on the published SURMOUNT-1 trajectory curves, approximately 38% of the 72-week result is achieved by week 12, 65% by week 24, and 88% by week 48. These proportions are applied to extrapolate timepoint-specific projections.
Percentile Methodology
The three outcome bands reflect the distribution of individual responses within the trial. The conservative projection uses 60% of the mean (approximating the 25th percentile response), typical uses 100% of the mean (median), and optimistic uses 145% of the mean (approximating the 75th percentile), capped at −30% to maintain biological plausibility.
Unit Conversions
Weight loss percentages from the trial are dose- and unit-agnostic — they apply directly to your starting weight regardless of measurement unit. The calculator converts between lbs and kg using the standard conversion factor (1 lb = 0.453592 kg).
What Affects Your Results
Four variables that drive where you land on the outcome distribution.
Starting BMI
Subjects with higher baseline BMI tend to achieve greater absolute weight loss in kg/lbs. The SURMOUNT-1 trial enrolled adults with BMI ≥ 30 or ≥ 27 with a weight-related comorbidity.
Dose
The 15mg dose significantly outperforms 5mg — mean 20.9% vs 15.0% at 72 weeks. Titrating to the highest tolerated dose maximizes outcomes.
Adherence
Weekly dosing consistency drives outcomes. The SURMOUNT-1 completers analysis shows substantially better results in those who maintained dosing throughout the 72-week period.
Lifestyle Factors
All SURMOUNT-1 participants received lifestyle intervention counseling. Caloric deficit and resistance training amplify GLP-1/GIP-mediated fat loss while preserving lean mass.
Body Recomposition as the Foundation
The numbers in this estimator represent more than weight. They represent structural changes to body composition that directly translate to aesthetic outcomes.
Visceral Fat First
GLP-1/GIP agonists preferentially mobilize visceral adipose tissue — the deep abdominal fat that distends the midsection. This creates early visible changes to waist circumference and abdominal profile.
Facial Recomposition
As subcutaneous buccal and jowl fat reduces, facial bone structure becomes more prominent. The jawline, cheekbones, and orbital region — previously obscured by adipose — sharpen significantly.
Lean Mass Preservation
Unlike caloric restriction alone, GLP-1-mediated weight loss in SURMOUNT-1 preserved a higher proportion of lean mass. Combined with resistance training, net skeletal muscle can be maintained or gained.
Begin Your Research Protocol
Source research-grade tirzepatide peptide. All vials are third-party HPLC verified with CoA documentation.